Space Weather Impacts and Emerging Citizen Science Efforts
Clear skies with a 50% chance of extremely high velocity, micro-bits of rock. Temperature lows in the -40s and highs in the 100s celsius. For satellite engineers, the detrimental impacts of temperature fluctuations and collisions with orbital debris (natural and man-made) as small as a few centimeters are clear. Thankfully, monitoring stations such as the U.S.’s Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and the Air Force’s Space Based Space Surveillance operate 24/7 for the purpose of tracking objects in Earth’s vicinity. On the other hand, the presence of electromagnetic (EM) radiation and charged particles are aspects of space weather vastly more complicated, which cause equally detrimental consequences. Typical weather prediction on the ground has grown significantly in the past few decades, however the level of space weather prediction is nowhere near our capabilities with the former; in fact, space weather prediction is roughly 50 years behind regular weather forecasts. When it comes to solar storms, there are two main types: solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In essence, a solar flare is a massive explosion acting like a particle accelerator and a CME is a burst of solar wind that sometimes follows a solar flare. Solar wind is perhaps the most important part in the Sun-Earth system of radiation and magnetic fields. The accurate specification (speed, density, direction, etc.) and forecasting of solar wind will enable usable impact assessments at Earth.
Satellites are not the only engineered systems subject to the adverse radiation environment caused by the Sun. In addition to satellites like ones used for global navigation systems, science research, and many other communications, the electricity grid, HF radio communications, and even aircraft passengers and crew can be significantly impacted depending on the magnitude of the solar storm. Similar to current 24/7 space debris monitoring, soon there will also be 24/7 global monitoring of the radiation environment to enhance forecasting for civil aviators. On November 7, 2019 the National Weather Service’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, CO began the official release of space weather advisory information for communications systems as well as for aircraft occupants. The NWS states,
The intended use of the ICAO space weather advisories is to better prepare flight crews, operators, air navigation service providers, and civil aviation authorities when developing flight plans and operational procedures for managing flights in areas impacted by space weather events.
Users of the system include the NWS, FAA, international civil authorities, domestic and international commercial airlines, and private companies. Presently, the NWS space weather center receives its data from two satellites, SEAESRT and GOES. With data-driven algorithms, SEAESRT’s job is to characterize the hazard levels for satellites in geosynchronous orbit. Similarly, GOES is a series of satellites with many instruments to ultimately alert satellite users. Where the hole in space weather data lies is actually within Earth’s troposphere for obtaining radiation exposure at flight levels. This is exactly what a group, hosted by the University of Surrey, has set out to fill. The SAIRA Network, or Smartphone Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation Monitoring Network seeks to “accurately quantify radiation levels within the Earth’s atmosphere during solar storm events,” which can assist pilots and their passengers from exceeding regulatory dose limits, something that can happen in just one flight. The SAIRA Network’s device connects to a smartphone and simply uploads all relevant flight radiation measurements to a server as part of a wider database.
The radiation detector provided is TSA-approved, so willing public volunteers are welcome and encouraged to assist in the capturing of radiation data. For passengers, typical flights on commercial airlines are only going to result in very low doses of cosmic radiation. Issues arise for frequent trans-polar routes (especially for pilots), and most significantly, in the event of a solar storm. Presently, radiation doses are not logged for pilots and flight attendants, as there is no requirement for any on-board measurement devices despite being officially labeled as “radiation workers”. Most radiation workers are required to closely track their exposure over the course of their career, however airline workers (who rank at the top of the list for radiation exposure among careers) do not keep this information on record. Presently, the most effective thing a pilot can do to reduce exposure is to fly shorter flights and at lower altitudes. Those flying trans-polar routes need to take even more caution, since the Earth’s magnetic field no longer provides any shielding over the Earth’s poles.
The fact of the matter is that during critical solar events there can exist spikes in radiation large enough to cause one to exceed the maximum annual limit during a single trans-polar flight. Scientists have been warning about aviation radiation exposure for many years, including Chris Mertens, NASA scientist at Langley who was mentioned in a page detailing the risk back in 2011. As Mertens mentioned, the movement of Earth’s magnetic poles can cause radiation concerns to arise in areas more south than typical polar flight routes, where flight traffic is heaviest.
November 7th, 2019 was a big day for space weather in another way as well. A $1.3 million National Science Foundation (NSF) grant was awarded to physics and electrical engineering professor Nathaniel Frissell, Ph.D. for the development of the HamSCI Personal Space Weather Station. This citizen science project will rely on the recruitment of universities and ham radio operators to operate in the network.
The space weather equipment will be developed at two levels of sophistication: one at a low-cost, easy-to-use level for the ham radio operators; and one that is more complex for university partners that will allow for the collection of additional data.
While not directly focused on radiation exposure to aircraft passengers, the personal weather station aims to measure and characterize ionospheric and geomagnetic variability from the ground. Ultimately, one of the driving forces behind the project is to provide observations “aggregated into a central database for space science and space weather research purposes.” Space weather policy is something that is rapidly evolving in the United States, and at the same time, the concept of citizen science is only recently gaining attention (Citizen Science Day 2019). Whether it’s planes flying at 30,000ft or the imminent desire for space tourism, the detection and forecasting of space weather will be required. For space weather, citizen science projects have the much-needed opportunity to correct the currently under-sampled set of data.
